Atwood Magazine’s 2025 Grammy Awards Predictions

Atwood Magazine’s Noah Wade offers some in-depth thoughts on the ‘Big Four’ categories of the 2025 Grammy Awards, and some more concise thoughts of additional categories in Pop, Country, Rap, and Rock.

The 67th annual Grammy Awards air this Sunday night on CBS, Paramount+, and live on live.GRAMMY.com at 8 p.m. EST. / 5 p.m. PST!

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General Field

Record of the Year

• Now and Then – The Beatles
• Texas Hold ‘Em – Beyoncé
• Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter
• 360 – Charli xcx
• Birds of a Feather – Billie Eilish
• Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar
• Good Luck, Babe! – Chappell Roan
• Fortnight – Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone

What Should Win – Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar

What Will Win – Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar

Two of these songs inspired sort of a ‘cultural movement.’ One, “Good Luck, Babe!,” is significantly more wholesome and progressive, while the other, “Not Like Us,” saw much of the world come together to celebrate the takedown of an artist who, at one point, was seen as the definitive figure of modern music culture. Not as wholesome, but a moment that much of the general public decided was fair game to hop in on, and was and is big enough to overshadow current and future projects by this artist, though that energy may shift following the SuperBowl.

Of the two, I do think “Not Like Us” is the better song, but “Good Luck, Babe!” has certainly been bolstered by the same critic postering that lauded “drivers license” by Olivia Rodrigo just a few years ago, possibly causing voters to lean in its direction, which is unappealing to me, personally. Of course, these more emotions-led viewpoints may not mean much for an award given with overall musical craft in mind, but there is always a possibility of other factors being considered.

If “Now and Then” had emerged in the early-mid 2010’s, prior to the, for lack of a better term, upheaval, of The Grammys, I think it would somehow have a fair shot of sneaking a win (though who that would benefit, I don’t know), but that is no longer plausible. Instead, “Fortnight” and “Birds of a Feather” could be seen as the ‘safe’ choices, with “Espresso” and “Texas Hold Em’” as potential wild cards. The wide array of pop material may also be the undoing of them all, with Lamar winning by virtue of both a lack of competition AND capitalizing off of the cultural zeitgeist.

Album of the Year

• New Blue Sun – Andre 3000
• Cowboy Carter – Beyonce
• Short n’ Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter
• Brat – Charli xcx
• Djesse Vol. 4 – Jacob Collier
• Hit Me Hard and Soft – Billie Eilish
• The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess – Chappell Roan
• The Tortured Poets Department – Taylor Swift

What Should Win – Cowboy Carter – Beyonce

What Will Win – Brat – Charli xcx

I feel as though I should not underestimate Taylor Swift in this category, but, the fact of the matter is is that TTPD, despite its gargantuan, Swift-level statistics, has not endured in the public consciousness. Quite frankly, I don’t think Cowboy Carter has in the same way that Renaissance did, but I do think the shock value, and Beyonce’s lack of response to the childlike conservatism of it all, are just two of many factors in explaining who or what have allowed the record to enjoy a relatively happy existence thus far. Of the two, Cowboy Carter is more likely.

In the same way that the Academy loves to nominate Coldplay for every eligible album of theirs these days whether warranted or not, they seem to be planting the seeds for Jacob Collier to have this same position. I hope they don’t actually do this. If they HAD to nominate an album that music nerds seem to all like this year, I would have been fine with Jessica Pratt taking that spot with Here in the Pitch.

Billie, Sabrina, and Chappell are all verifiable contenders for this, and Andre 3000’s inclusion, and possible win, is perhaps the best case scenario for those existing in a purely online context, but I think, even if it didn’t have the desired effect politically, Brat has really earned this one. How do you somehow even suggest disguising THE party album of the year as a potential political rallying cry, and how do you, even when the political aspect of it is dead in the ground, maintain a sense of importance for a record and allow it to exist outside of itself? This album has been afforded a very rare sense of transparency… a transparency that has not dimmed since the results of the election.

 Song of the Year

• A Bar Song (Tipsy) – Shaboozey
• Birds of a Feather – Billie Eilish
• Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
• Fortnight – Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone
• Good Luck, Babe! – Chappell Roan
• Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar
• Please Please Please – Sabrina Carpenter
• Texas Hold ‘Em – Beyoncé

What Should Win – Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars

What Will Win – Birds of a Feather – Billie Eilish

An award for basic songcraft and lyricism, there are, in my opinion, only two viable options. “Die With A Smile” is the entire package… isn’t it? It is Bruno Mars, who, along with Anderson. Paak, swept with “Leave The Door Open” just two years ago, and Lady Gaga, who can be, and often has been in recent years, the adult contemporary darling, together on the most adult contemporary song of the bunch. Normally, it would be a slam dunk, but Billie Eilish’s level of favor with The Grammys, something she herself likely can’t even explain, may deter “Die With A Smile.”

Best New Artist

• Benson Boone
• Sabrina Carpenter
• Doechii
• Khruangbin
• Raye
• Chappell Roan
• Shaboozey
• Teddy Swims

Who Should Win – Chappell Roan

Who Will Win – Chappell Roan

A third of this category are men who are nominated because of a single song. Not because that song made any kind of statement about anyone or anything, but because it is a song that people enjoyed. And that is great, I guess.

Doechii and Raye, in another year, would have had a fair shot. Two blazing voices of their respective genres, but included in a category that includes two of the biggest pop stars with big pop star stories.

Flaws and all, Chappell Roan has asserted herself as the artist who will ask questions. Who will shove uncomfortable truths at her audience, and even those beyond her musical reach. Who has adopted style and fashion in a way that is VERY early Lady Gaga, but is NOT solely adopting Gaga’s mission statement of, “Look at me I’m doing art can we talk about the art please?” as a precursor to everything else, even if almost every man in the industry would ignore it all. Sabrina is not inspiring these conversations. I think, in this case, that does matter.

Pop & Dance/Electronic

Best Pop Solo Performance

• Bodyguard – Beyoncé
• Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter
• Apple – Charli xcx
• Birds of a Feather – Billie Eilish
• Good Luck, Babe! – Chappell Roan

What Should Win – Good Luck, Babe – Chappell Roan

What Will Win – Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter

Seeing as the word ‘performance’ is never taken into a literal sense, as far as vocal performance goes (Ariana Grande’s “Dangerous Woman” lost to Adele’s “Hello” in 2017) for this award, there is a chance that Chappell Roan does not walk away with this. As far as ‘pop song having a pop song moment,’ goes, “Espresso” it is not blasphemous to say that “Espresso” was THE pop song of the year, which could result in it sneaking in with the win.

Best Pop/Duo Group Performance

• Us – Gracie Abrams featuring Taylor Swift
• Levii’s Jeans – Beyonce featuring Post Malone
• Guess – Charli xcx & Billie Eilish
• The Boy Is Mine – Ariana Grande, Brandy & Monica
• Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars

What Should Win – Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars

What Will Win – Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars

I can truly only hope and pray with this one.

Best Pop Vocal Album

• Short n’ Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter
• Hit Me Hard and Soft – Billie Eilish
• Eternal Sunshine – Ariana Grande
• The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess – Chappell Roan
• The Tortured Poets Department – Taylor Swift

What Should Win – The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess – Chappell Roan

What Will Win – Short n’ Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter

Reason being… Sabrina’s album, as an entire body of work, was at the forefront of conversation more frequently than Chappell’s. All, and I mean ALL, of the Chappell songs the world have fallen in love with are ON that album, but I don’t think she has made it as much of an album campaign as opposed to a, “Hi, I’m Chappell” campaign. Short n’ Sweet, as an album, was a juggernaut.

Best Dance Pop Recording

• Make You Mine – Madison Beer
• Von Dutch – Charli XCX
• L’ Amour de Ma Vie (Over Now Extended Edit) – Billie Eilish
• Yes, And? – Ariana Grande
• Got Me Started – Troye Sivan

What Should Win –  Von Dutch – Charli XCX

What Will Win – Von Dutch – Charli XCX

Good on Troye, and for the Academy for acknowledging his existence, but if Charli is in fact going to lose everything else, even Album of the Year, which is very possible, this category is directly suited for her.

Best Dance/Electronic Recording

• She’s Gone, Dance On – Disclosure
• Loved – Four Tet
• Leavemealone – Fred Again and Baby Keem
• Neverender – Justice and Tame Impala
• Witchy – Kaytranada and Childish Gambino

What Should Win – Neverender – Justice and Tame Impala

What Will Win – She’s Gone, Dance On – Disclosure

We Best Dance/Electronic Album

• Brat – Charli XCX
• Three – Four Tet
• Hyperdrama – Justice
• Timeless – Kaytranada
• Telos – Zedd

What Should Win – Brat – Charli XCX

What Will Win – Brat – Charli XCX

Rock, Metal, and Alternative

Best Rock Performance  

• Now and Then – The Beatles
• Beautiful People (Stay High) – The Black Keys
• The American Dream Is Killing Me – Green Day
• Gift Horse – Idles
• Dark Matter – Pearl Jam
• Broken Man – St. Vincent

What Should Win – Dark Matter – Pearl Jam

What Will Win – Now and Then – The Beatles

I actually don’t want this to happen, and I hope the voters were reminded of, or at least considered, the fact that this song was not actually ‘performed.’

Best Rock Song

• Beautiful People (Stay High) – The Black Keys
• Broken Man – St. Vincent
• Dark Matter – Pearl Jam
• Dilemma – Green Day
• Gift Horse – Idles

What Should Win – Broken Man – St. Vincent

What Will Win – Broken Man – St. Vincent

Badass stuff, really.

Best Alternative Music Performance  

• Neon Pill – Cage The Elephant
• Song of the Lake – Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds
• Starburster – Fontaines D.C.
• Bye Bye – Kim Gordon
• Flea – St. Vincent

What Should Win – Bye Bye – Kim Gordon AND Starburster – Fontaines D.C.

What Will Win – Flea – St. Vincent

Best Metal Performance

• Mea Culpa (Ah! Ca Ira!) – Gojira, Marina Viotti, & Victor Le Masne
• Crowns of Horns – Judas Priest
• Suffocate – Knocked Loose featuring Poppy
• Screaming Suicide – Metallica
• Cellar Door – Spiritbox

What Should Win – Suffocate – Knocked Loose featuring Poppy

What Will Win – Suffocate – Knocked Loose featuring Poppy

Best Rock Album

• Happiness Bastards – The Black Crowes
• Romance – Fontaines D.C.
• Saviors – Green Day
• Tangk – Idles
• Dark Matter – Pearl Jam
• Hackney Diamonds – The Rolling Stones
• No Name – Jack White

What Should Win – No Name – Jack White

What Will Win – Dark Matter – Pearl Jam

Best Alternative Music Album

• Wild God – Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds
• Charm – Clairo
• The Collective – Kim Gordon
• What Now – Brittany Howard
• All Born Screaming – St. Vincent

What Should Win – All Born Screaming – St. Vincent

What Will Win – What Now – Brittany Howard

I’m not saying Clairo isn’t alternative, but is she alternative enough to be amongst this group??

R&B & Rap

Best R&B Performance

• Guidance – Jhene Aiko
• Residuals – Chris Brown
• Here We Go (Uh Oh) – Coco Jones
• Made for Me (Live on BET) – Muni Long
• Saturn – SZA

What Should Win – Guidance – Jhene Aiko

What Will Win – Made For Me (Live on BET) – Muni Long

Best Traditional R&B Performance

• Wet – Marsha Ambrosius
• Can I Have This Groove – Kenyon Dixon
• No Lie – Lalah Hathaway featuring Michael McDonald
• Make Me Forget – Muni Long
• That’s You – Lucky Daye

What Should Win – Make Me Forget – Muni Long

What Will Win – Wet – Marsha Ambrosius

Let me be wrong… I’m fine with it.

Best R&B Song

• After Hours – Kehlani
• Burning – Tems
• Here We Go (Uh Oh) – Coco Jones
• Ruined Me – Muni Long
• Saturn – SZA

What Should Win – Saturn – SZA

What Will Win – Saturn – SZA

Best Progressive R&B Album

• So Glad To Know You – AverySunshine
• En Route – Durand Bernarr
• Bando Stone & the New World – Childish Gambino
• Crash – Kehlani
• Why Lawd? – NxWorries (Anderson .Paak & Knxwledge)

What Should Win – En Route – Durand Bernarr

What Will Win – Bando Stone & the New World – Childish Gambino

I think Donald would agree with me, if we’re being honest.

Best R&B Album

• 11:11 Deluxe – Chris Brown
• Vantablack – Lalah Hathaway
• Revenge – Muni Long
• Algorithm – Lucky Daye
• Coming Home – Usher

What Should Win – Revenge – Muni Long

What Will Win – Coming Home – Usher

Best Rap Performance  

• Enough (Miami) – Cardi B
• When The Sun Shines Again – Common & Pete Rock featuring Posdnuos
• Nissan Altima – Doechii
• Houdini – Eminem
• Like That – Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar
• Yeah Glo! – GloRilla
• Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar

What Should Win – Yeah Glo! – GloRilla

What Will Win – Nissan Altima – Doechii

If you want to award and encourage an artist with the potential to become the next big thing, moving away from an artist the industry has not-so-subliminally made clear they want to move away from it, do it, in a big way, here

Best Melodic Rap Performance

• Kehlani – Jordan Adetunji featuring Kehlani
• Spaghettii – Beyonce featuring Linda Martell & Shaboozey
• We Still Don’t Trust You – Future, Metro Boomin & The Weeknd
• Big Mama – Latto
• 3:AM – Rapsody featuring Erykah Badu

What Should Win – 3:AM – Rapsody featuring Erykah Badu

What Will Win – Spaghettii – Beyonce featuring Linda Martell & Shaboozey

Best Rap Song

• Asteroids – Rapsody featuring Hit-Boy
• Carnival – Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign featuring Rich The Kid & Playboi Carti
• Like That – Future & Metro Boomin featuring Kendrick Lamar
• Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar
• Yeah Glo! – Glorilla

What Should Win – Like That – Future & Metro Boomin featuring Kendrick Lamar

What Will Win – Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar

I mean… if we’re being realistic here…

Best Rap Album

• Might Delete Later – J. Cole
• The Auditorium, Vol. 1 – Common & Pete Rock
• Alligator Bites Never Heal – Doechii
• The Death Of Slim Shady – Eminem
• We Don’t Trust You – Future & Metro Boomin

What Should Win – We Don’t Trust You – Future & Metro Boomin

What Will Win – Alligator Bites Never Heal – Doechii

I really like Future, okay??

Country

Best Country Solo Performance

• 16 Carriages – Beyonce
• I Am Not Okay – Jelly Roll
• The Architect – Kacey Musgraves
• A Bar Song (Tipsy) – Shaboozey
• It Takes A Woman – Chris Stapleton

What Should Win – 16 Carriages – Beyonce

What Will Win – A Bar Song (Tipsy) – Shaboozey

Where the hell is “Cardinal,” Kacey?

Best Country Duo/Group Performance

• Cowboys Cry Too – Kelsea Ballerini & Noah Kahan
• II Most Wanted – Beyonce & Miley Cyrus
• Break Mine – Brothers Osbourne
• Bigger Houses – Dan & Shay
• I Had Some Help – Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen

What Should Win – II Most Wanted – Beyonce & Miley Cyrus

What Will Win – I Had Some Help – Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen

It pains me to say it, but…

Best Country Song

• The Architect – Kacey Musgraves
• A Bar Song (Tipsy) – Shaboozey
• I Am Not Okay – Jelly Roll
• I Had Some Help – Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen
• Texas Hold ‘Em – Beyonce

What Should Win – The Architect – Kacey Musgraves

What Will Win – Texas Hold ‘Em – Beyonce

Best Country Album

• Cowboy Carter – Beyonce
• F-1 Trillion – Post Malone
• Deeper Well – Kacey Musgraves
• Higher – Chris Stapleton
• Whirlwind – Lainey Wilson

What Should Win – Higher – Chris Stapleton

What Will Win – Higher – Chris Stapleton

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